Wednesday, January 10, 2018

"‘Water war’ escalates between Egypt, Sudan"

From Al-Monitor:
So far, 2018 has been a negative year for Egyptian-Sudanese relations. On Jan. 4, Sudan recalled its ambassador from Egypt. Without providing further details, Sudan’s Foreign Ministry stated that Ambassador Kamal al-Din Hassan Ali was recalled for consultations. Egypt’s Foreign Ministry is weighing how to “take appropriate action.” This diplomatic spat has unfolded in a complicated context in which numerous issues have fueled tensions in bilateral relations for years.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project has contributed to friction in Cairo-Khartoum relations. Egypt sees the project as a major threat to its water interests, while Sudan views it as a valuable opportunity. In November 2017, Cairo officially declared that technical negotiations with Sudan and Ethiopia had failed. Then, at the beginning of January, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi reportedly sent Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn a proposal to continue talks between Cairo and Addis Ababa over the megaproject, excluding Khartoum. Egypt denies that Sisi sent this proposal to Ethiopia’s leadership. Nonetheless, the Nile's water supply remains a source of much disagreement between Cairo and Khartoum.

According to Sudanese state-owned media, the Egyptian military has since deployed its forces to waters off the coast of the disputed Halayeb triangle border area, where Cairo has also sent warplanes. Although not a new conflict, Egypt and Sudan’s territorial dispute at the border area has recently escalated.

In April 2017, Khartoum saw itself in a stronger position due to more support from Arab Gulf monarchies and a new administration in Washington that may have appeared far more open to a Sudan-US rapprochement than any of US President Donald Trump’s three predecessors. This prompted Sudanese officials to ask Egypt to relinquish control of the area; Cairo’s refusal led to harsh words in the Egyptian and Sudanese media. Then friction intensified once Khartoum re-established a requirement that Egyptians must possess a visa to enter Sudan. The following month, Sudan banned the importation of Egypt-sourced agricultural products, and President Omar al-Bashir accused Cairo of arming rebels in Darfur, which Egypt denied. Egypt fired back, pointing to the residence of several Muslim Brotherhood members in Sudan.

In the grander regional picture, Egypt and Sudan find themselves on opposite sides of an increasingly polarized Sunni Arab world, underscored by the Qatar crisis. Egypt — along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — has sought to convince African states to back the Saudi/UAE-led bloc against Doha based on the narrative that Qatar is a rogue actor and a sponsor of terrorism. Yet Sudan has refused to join this anti-Qatar campaign. Khartoum’s “neutral” response to the Gulf dispute has been an outcome of Sudan — in complete contrast to Egypt — not viewing Doha as a menace and Sudan’s understanding that close ties with all six Gulf Cooperation Council states, including Qatar, best serves Khartoum’s interests. Illustrative of Egypt’s inability to bring Sudan behind the campaign against Doha was Qatari Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Ghanim Bin Shaheen al-Ghanim’s visit to Khartoum at the end of last month, when he held discussions with his Sudanese and Russian counterparts about Red Sea security issues....MUCH MORE