Wednesday, April 29, 2015

"A Rare Win for Economic Forecasting: The Atlanta Fed Almost Nails Its First-Quarter Growth Estimate"

Why do scientists make predictions?

To judge whether their theories are based in reality.

If someone purporting to practice a science says they don't make predictions they aren't doing science but rather something faith-based i.e. more akin to a religion.

From Real Time Economics:
The U.S. economy’s sharp slowdown in the first three months of the year may have caught almost all Wall Street forecasters off guard. But it didn’t surprise the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

The regional Fed bank’s frequently updated GDPNow forecast proved to be one of the most reliable indications of where first-quarter growth would stand. The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the economy grew at a mere 0.2% annual rate, against Wall Street expectations of a 1% gain. When most private sector forecasters were overestimating growth, the Atlanta Fed gauge, last updated on Friday, had growth in gross domestic product pegged at 0.1% for the quarter.

The GDPNow gauge has been warning of weakness in the first quarter for some time. That notion was not by itself controversial, as most forecasters and Fed officials saw a weak 2015 kickoff. But the Atlanta Fed proved to be standout when it came to accurately quantifying how much trouble the economy had on its hands.

The Atlanta Fed “certainly nailed it this time,” said J.P. Morgan Chase chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli....MORE