Monday, June 9, 2014

Opportunity! By 2016 More Money Will Come Out of 401K's than Flow In!

It may not be seen as a positive by those institutions currently managing the funds but any time you have money in motion you have opportunity, just dip your cup into the stream. Or something.
From the Financial Times:

US pensions ‘cash negative’ by 2016
America’s sprawling 401(k) pension system will turn cash flow negative in 2016, threatening disruption for asset managers and selling of equities, according to analysis by Cerulli Associates, a research house.

The $3.5tn system attracted fresh contributions of $300bn in 2012, with $276bn either withdrawn as cash by retirees or rolled over into individual retirement accounts (IRAs), Cerulli estimated.

However, by 2016 it forecasts that inflows will be $364bn and outflows $366bn, with the deficit only widening year on year after that as the core of the baby-boomer generation retires.

“This has significant implications for asset managers and other financial services providers,” said Bing Waldert, a director at Cerulli. “It is going to be a disappointment for a lot of fund managers that have put a lot of effort into the DC [defined contribution pension fund] market....MUCH MORE
For one thing the reversal of fund flows will remove the permabid under the investment markets that was started by Representative Keogh and HR 10 back in 1962 and which accelerated with ERISA and IRA's in 1974 and greatly accelerated with section 401K in 1978.

I've always thought of the inflows as metronomic (even though there is some end-of-month/first-of-month bunching), supplying the backdrop to the overall market.