Thursday, June 5, 2014

Gold: No Reaction to Negative Rates Is Negative For Lovers of Shiny But the Trade Is Getting Too Popular

$1,240.20 Tuesday, the lowest since Jan. 31, was not even the end of the beginning of the downmove.
August's $1244.10. last.
Miner ETF GDX closed yesterday at $22.28 and is up 21 cents pre-market while triple levered inverse DUST closed at $29.04 and is indicating down $0.83.
The daily chart shows some support at ~$1231, a possible base for a short-covering rally:
Meanwhile the short the miners trade is probably getting too popular with ETF Trends posting "As Miners Wilt, Interest in Leveraged ETFs Rises":
As gold prices continue to stumble, weakness is mounting in shares of gold mining equities and the relevant exchange traded funds.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) has shed 8.4% over the past month, but GDX, the largest gold miners ETF by assets, is far from the lone offender. At least eight gold and silver miners ETFs ranked among the worst non-leveraged performers last month. [Commodities ETFs Crushed]
Another tumble for gold miners is stoking increased interest in volatile leveraged ETFs....MORE
And Barry Ritholtz writing at Bloomberg "Kiss Gold Bull Market Goodbye":
In the beginning of this year, we looked at some of the trading errors commonly made by gold investors during this cycle. At the time, gold had fallen 38 percent from its 2011 peak. Yesterday, spot gold traded at less than $1,242 before closing slightly higher.

Gold is hitting new multiyear lows relative to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. J.C. Parets, a technical analyst at Eagle Bay Capital, notes: “This downtrend has been very strong over the past 30 months and is hard to fight.” See the following chart...MORE
In summation, we are still looking for $875-ish by the end of Q3 but sometime in the next week and/or $0-10 bucks a violent countertrend rally could take hold.

Here's today's reaction to the ECB announcement, $1244.10 down 30 cents last: