Thursday, June 27, 2013

EMH: "In India, Gold-Related Shares Melt Down"

So much for the Efficient Market Hypothesis and price incorporating the news. Look at this series of headlines:
Feb. 19
May 12 
Ahead of Hindu Holy Day Warnings on Gold Purchases and Discounts on Coins
May 15 
Reserve Bank of India Launches Inflation Bonds to Reduce Demand for Gold
As Indian Central Bank Restricts Gold Imports Spot Falls to a Three Week Low
June 21 
"No Gold Rush in India After Latest Plunge"

As was pointed out in one of the May 15 posts:
 The RBI is not fooling around. They've raised the tariff on gold coming into the country, they've pushed for dematerialized gold trading to reduce the need for physical, on Monday they restricted importation to legitimate jewelers and now they are offering a product meant to absorb some of the inflation-linked demand....
Here's the latest, from MoneyBeat:
Gold-related Indian companies have seen their shares hammered this week, as global gold prices hit a three-year low and the Indian government’s efforts to restrict gold imports hit bottom lines.

Shares of jewelers such as Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Ltd 534369.BY +0.54%PC Jeweller Ltd. 534809.BY +1.96%, and Gitanjali Gems Ltd. 532715.BY -9.99% have fallen by as much as 40% this week as overseas funds, especially, have dumped holdings. Investors fear that recent efforts by the Indian government to curb gold imports will hurt the jewelers’ profit margins.

Meanwhile, stocks of lenders such Muthoot Finance Ltd. 533398.BY +3.30% and Manappuram Finance Ltd. 531213.BY +3.77% have fallen 10%-18%, due to fears that falling gold prices will make it difficult for them to maintain margins on loans made against gold collateral and will cut revenue from auctions of physical gold.

“I am negative on gold retailers. The government’s reforms have put these companies’ business model at risk,” says Mitesh Shah, an analyst with Mumbai brokerage Inventure Growth & Securities Ltd. 533506.BY -3.85%

Gold prices slid to $1,223.80 a troy ounce on Thursday. International gold prices have fallen 25% this year, while prices in India have dropped 15% as the rupee has slid to a record low against the U.S. dollar. The rupee has fallen 11% against the dollar since the beginning of May....MORE
So naturally yours truly decides this is a fine time to be long at $1226. The action since the rec. is desultory at best, $1231 last:

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